Box office may see Rs 400-cr collection as Bajirao clashes with Dilwale

With Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani releasing simultaneously on pre-Christmas weekend, Shah Rukh Khan and Sanjay Leela Bhansali are set for a major box office clash. But this is not the first time one of India’s top actors and one of India’s finest directors are fighting it out on the big screen.

In 2007, Khan’s Om Shanti Om, a reincarnation drama with all the trappings of a masala flick, trounced Bhansali’sSaawariya, an interpretation of Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s White Nights. With Rs 90-crore business, OSO became one of the year’s highest-grossing movies. On the other hand, Saawariya failed to recover money.

While history seems to be in favour of King Khan, no one can rule out Bhansali who has directed blockbusters likeDevdas and Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam. Both the movies have been mounted on Rs 100-crore-plus budget and both sides have put up unprecedented marketing campaigns, leading to a nail-biting contest.

Analysts believe both the films have what it takes to be a top-grosser in Bollywood. However, Dilwale seems to have an upper hand on the opening day. “It seems very safe to assume that Dilwale will top (Bajirao Mastani) as it offers wholesome entertainment for the masses. Bajirao may appeal more to the urban audience,” said Suniel Wadhwa, an independent distributor and box office analyst.

Exhibitors feel publicity buzz will help both the movies and are preparing for a busy week ahead. “Audience will give both these movies a good response and we see a healthy upswing of both footfall and revenue. We are expecting full-houses during the weekend and more than 90 per cent over the week,” said Rajender Singh, VP, programming and distribution at Inox Leisure.

Some experts, however, believe that despite having a slightly weaker launch pad, Bajirao Mastani, a historical romance film, stands good chance to do better in the long run. Shaaminder Malik, exhibitor and trade analyst (North India) said, “Over the past couple of years, the audience has rejected or hailed a film on the basis of content… In the long run, Bajirao Mastani may actually have a bigger box office collection. Slow and steady wins the race, and Bajirao seems to be on the way to do just that.”

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Both the films are releasing in 2,800-plus screens in India. The two movies are likely to earn up to Rs 400-crore collectively. While it is being assumed that each of them will do Rs 100 crore-plus business, the winner is likely to cross Rs 200 crore mark.

“Together, both the films are set to add Rs 400 crore to the box office. Last year, PK alone added Rs 340 crore, and this year, Bajrangi Bhaijaan added Rs 320 crore on its own. Business may have been better if the release dates were not the same,” Malik added.

Wadhwa said both the films may suffer a dent in the earnings because the screen time and space has been divided. “After a bad year for the box office, the industry is looking forward to this weekend to turn the tide… I am not convinced that the overall performance will be significantly better than what we have seen over the past couple of years.”

Meanwhile, the clash poses a unique challenge for the exhibitors. While multiplexes can dedicate individual screens to each film, single screen owners will have no other option but to split the shows. Consequently, one of the films will end up losing out on the prime time — 6pm and 9pm shows — which sees highest footfall and premium ticket pricing. For the opening weekend, average ticket price has gone up by around 30 per cent.

Singh said, while the situation does pose a programming challenge, exhibitors are well-equipped to handle it. “It is not very unusual to see two big movies clashing at the box office. In the past, we have seen Lagaan and Gadar, Taare Zameen Par and Welcome, Saawariya and Om Shanti Om, etc releasing on the same day.”

And then there is hope for both the movies. In most cases, whenever two big movies have been released on the same day, both have done well. For example, Gadar and Lagaan were the top-grossers of the year they were launched. Similarly, both Taare Zameen Par and Welcome were blockbusters.